Assessing the loss of lives in wars—World War 2 as an example
It’s common knowledge that war kills people. But how many people? It’s surprisingly
difficult to compute how many lives were taken in a particular conflict. For example, historians
agree that World War 2 was the bloodiest conflict in history, but estimates range from 50 to 70
million.
In the World War 2 years (1937-45), we know war killed a great many people. We don’t
know how many, and it’s not very clear whether all of them are attributable to the war. The
second Sino-Japanese War began in 1937 (the first war was in the 1890s and was rather short
and far, far less deadly). The estimates of Chinese who lost their lives in that war range from 7
to more than 20 million. Japan lost about 2.1 million soldiers and another million civilians killed,
the soldiers killed mostly in China and the civilians in Japan, killed by American bombing.
But should famines be included? About three million people died in a famine in Bengal
that is related to the war. Several million lives were lost in China due to another famine, which is
more clearly related to the war. About three million people in Indonesia are thought to have died
working as forced labor for the Japanese and from starvation. A hundred thousand Filipinos
died in Manila in 1944, caught in the fighting between Americans and Japanese and from
massacres by the Japanese army. But how do we count the Japanese civilians who killed
themselves rather than live under American occupation? There may have been more than 1,000
who committed suicide on Saipan, and far more who killed themselves on Okinawa.
There’s another factor in this kind of sad calculation. We know that Poland lost six million
people in the war, half of whom were Jewish. We know that about six million Jews died in the
Holocaust. Three million are counted twice, as Polish citizens and as Jews killed by the Nazi
regime. Here’s another example: we know that maybe three million German soldiers died on the
Eastern front (that is, eastern Europe). But more than a million of the German soldiers were
actually troops from German allies—Hungary, Romania, Italy and a couple of divisions of
volunteers from Spain.
Similarly, the Soviet Union is reckoned to have lost 12 million soldiers and at least 10
million civilians, with most historians agreeing on 25 to 26 million total. But of those, Russia (one
of the member republics in the Soviet Union) lost 13.9 million, Ukraine 6.8 million, Belarus 2.3
million, Kazakhstan 660,000, Uzbekistan 550,000, Azerbaijan and Georgia both 300,000, and
so on. Today, people tend to say that Russia lost 26 million lives in the war, when the figures
show half that awful total was not Russian.
Situations and events other than war that have taken a million or more lives
Sadly, there are situations that have claimed many lives but were not wars or
revolutions. For example, the Soviet dictator Stalin’s regime conducted violent purges and other
actions that historians estimate cost between 10 and 20 million lives. Under his regime there
was an deliberate famine inflicted on Ukraine that cost somewhere between 3 and 7 million
lives, which the Ukrainians call the Holodomor. And like the Holocaust, there are people who
deny that it ever happened.
In Germany before World War 2, there were efforts to cleanse German genes by getting
rid of the handicapped, the mentally ill and the mentally challenged. That resuled in the murders
of perhaps 300,000 people.
In Cambodia, under the regime of Pol Pot, there was a kind of ethnic cleansing by the
Communists, designed to get rid of the middle class and anyone deemed insufficiently
committed to the revolution. Estimates are 1.5 to 3 million Cambodians died from this regime’s
policies.
Situations and events that may have taken millions of lives
Some historical events have received relatively little attention from historians. India, for
example, is a huge place with a history as deep as China’s. Like China, India has had a large
population for most of its history, and the various kingdoms made war with each other with the
same levels of violence that happened in Europe and China. One emperor of India, Ashoka
(302-232 BCE) gave up war after seeing the human cost of a brutal war of conquest. He was an
emperor of the Maurya dynasty.
We know little of the wars in Southeast Asia, in which the Burmese fought the Thais, the
Thais fought the Cambodians, Sumatrans fought Javanese and so on. We also know little of the
human cost of wars among the peoples native to the Americas. The Aztecs (1315-1519) were
just as imperialistic as the Spanish, and the Incas (1400-1533)were ruthless empire builders.
We know that Christianity sometimes committed near-genocide against heretics or
pagans. We know that there were many slave rebellions, like the rebellion of Spartacus against
Rome (73-71 BCE) and the revolt of Haitian slaves against France (1789-1804).
Wars that have taken about a million lives
We can be certain that World War 2 took the most lives of any war in human history. But
what were the other wars? Estimates of losses are simply not known with any certainty. We
know that the conquests of the Mongol era (1206-1368) resulted in a lot of death, but estimates
range from 20 million to 40 million, with the heaviest losses being in China and Persia.
Here’s a list or wars that have killed more than a million people, starting more than 2,000
years ago.
–The Punic Wars between Carthage and Rome (264-146 BCE) claimed somewhere between
one and two million lives. It resulted in the complete destruction of Carthage and the survivors
being sold into slavery.
–The Three Kingdoms War (184-280 CE) in China, perhaps 36 to 40 million deaths.
–The Yellow Turban Rebellion (184-205 CE) in China, resulting in perhaps 3 to 7 million deaths.
–The Gallic Wars (58-50 BCE), the conquest of what is now France by Julius Caesar. His Gallic
Wars chronicle his conquest. Perhaps a million lives were lost, and many survivors sold into
slavery.
–The Jewish Rebellions against Rome (66-136 CE) claimed somewhere between one and two
million lives. One result was the expulsion of Jews from Palestine and that was the start of the
Jewish diaspora.
–The An Lushan Rebellion (755-63). This was a massive rebellion and a time of anarchy in
China. Estimates range as high as 30 million lives lost. Famine and disease probably were the
big killers.
–The Crusades (1095-1291) in the Middle East, resulting from Christian invasions aiming to
return Jerusalem to Christian control. In total the crusades may have claimed 1 to 3 million lives.
The crusades in the Baltic (1100-1410) lasted for three centuries, and probably claimed a large
number of German, Russian, Polish, Lithuanian and Prussian lives (the original Prussians were
a pagan tribe). The Baltic crusades were aimed at forcing many pagan peoples to convert to
Christianity. There were crusades in Spain aiming to reconquer Spain from the Muslim
conquest (Muslims ruled much of Spain for 800 years, until 1492). The bloody Albigensian
Crusade (1209-29) in the south of France amounted to a genocide against the Albigensian
heretics. There were also several late crusades against the Ottoman Turks in the 1400s.
–The Mongol conquests (1206-1368) resulted in the largest land empire in world history, from
Korea to Ukraine. The losses were very high, but estimates vary from 20 to 40 million. The
Mongol empire broke up but successor states remained powerful and active in wars in Ukraine,
Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East.
— The Muslim conquests resulted in many wars, but they were not like the Mongols or Romans.
Islam exploded out of Arabia in the 600s CE and quickly conquered North Africa, the Middle
East and Central Asia. The conquest of Hindu India was an exception, and some scholars in
India claim tens of millions of lives lost.
–Related to the Mongols was the attempt of Timur the Lame (1330-1405, also known as
Timurlane and Tamerlane) whose conquests included most of Central Asia and the Middle East
and resulted in somewhere between 8 and 20 million lives. Timur used terror on a large scale,
and a specialty was making towers of skulls of the massacred populations of cities that rebelled.
–The Spanish conquest of the Americas began in 1492 but the heavy loss of life was the
conquest of Aztec Mexico (1519-21) and Inca Peru (1532-72). The number of casualties was in
the many millions. The losses due to the conquest is angrily debated by historians. We simply
do not know how many people there were in the Americas, with estimates ranging from 20
million to 100 million. Disease and war quickly killed somewhere between 80% or 95% of the
population. This means that if the total really 100 million, it was the bloodiest war and conquest
in all of world history.
–Wars of Religion in France (1562-98). These wars were complicated but quite violent. As may
as 2 to 4 million may have died during these wars, although other estimates are considerably
lower.
–Japanese invasions of Kore (1562-98). Japan attempted to conquer Korea, but China
intervened and Korea became a battleground between Japan and China. As many as a million
people may have died, mostly Koreans.
–Qing conquest of China (1618-83). The Qing dynasty (1644-1911) took many years and was a
quite large conflict. No one knows how many people in China dies; one estimate places it at 25
million. The Qings are also called the Manchu dynasty, originating as a non-Chinese people in
what is now Manchuria.
–Thirty Years War (1618-48). This long war engulfed Germany and Central Europe. It was the
most devastating war for Germany before World War 2. Germany did not exist as a country until
1871, and during the time of this war was a complex of hundreds of free cities, dukedoms,
bishoprics and kingdoms, the most important of which were Saxony, Bavaria and Prussia. The
wars were primarily religious. Estimates of the deaths range from 3 to 8 million.
–The Deluge (1648-67). This was an era of chaos and anarchy unleashed on Poland-Lithuania
and Ukraine with Sweden as a military power. As many as 3 million people may have died.
–The Seven Years War (1756-63). This was a war between France and Britain, although other
European states were involved. It was actually a world war, with fighting in Africa, India, Europe
and was the war that ended the French empire in North America. In the English colonies, it is
known as the French and Indian War. As many as a million deaths may have resulted.
–Napoleonic Wars (1803-15). These are named for Napoleon Bonaparte. The wars involved
almost all of Europe, and for once military casualties probably outnumbered civilian casualties,
except in Spain and some areas where guerrilla war was intense.
–The Mfecane (1810s-1840s). This convulsed Southern Africa and is related to the rise of
Shaka Zulu. A series of violent was included massive migrations. 1 to 2 million lives may have
bene lost.
–The revolt in India, sometimes called the Sepoy Revolt (1857-58). Parts of India revolted
against British rule. The British put down the rebellion with remarkable brutality. A million lives or
so were lost.
–The Paraguayan War (1864-70). Paraguay fought an alliance or Brazil, Argentina and
Uruguay. The Paraguayan population decimated and some estimates are that up to 90% of
Paraguayan men died. Losses may have exceeded a million.
–The Dungan Revolt, also known as the Tongzhi Hui Rebellion (1862-77). This was a revolt by
Muslims in China against Qing rule. The loss of life was large, with estimates as high as 20
million deaths. Epidemics, famine and massacre were major killers.
–The Taiping Rebellion (1850-64). This involved a messianic cult that sought to take over
China. Disease and famine were major killers. Estimates of the number of deaths range as high
as 40 million, but more recent historians estimate 20 to 30 million.
–The Mexican Revolution (1911-20). The war involved at first a revolt against a dictator and
devolved into several factions fighting each other. Estimates of deaths range from under a
million to 2 million. One result was a massive flow of refugees into the U.S.
–Russian Civil War (1917-22). Casualties were very high and remain highly controversial. The
war involved the Reds (Communists) fighting the Whites (the remnants of the tsarist regime,
opponents of the Communists, and others). There were independence movements crushed in
Ukraine and the Caucasus. There was military intervention from the outside, including Britain,
France, Japan, the U.S. As many as 8 million lives may have been lost.
–World War 1 (1914-18). This may be the first major war when military deaths outnumbered
civilian deaths. Recent estimates are 11 million soldiers and 7 million civilian deaths. The
worldwide pandemic, Spanish Flu, is mixed in and aside from the war, the pandemic may have
killed 20 to 100 million people.
–The Chinese Civil War (1927-50). This was a long war of varying intensity between the
Nationalists and the Communists and overlapped with the warlord conflicts and the Japanese
war. Some 8 million people may have died. Many more died after the Communist takeover, but
the numbers are highly controversial. For example during the Great Leap Forward, a famine
occurred that critics of Mao Zedong claim may have caused 40-50 million deaths.
–The Korean War (1950-53). This involved an invasion of South Korea by Communist North
Korea, its defeat and then a massive intervention by China. Estimates of the number of deaths
are extremely controversial, but range from 1-2 million up to 5 million.
–The Algerian War (1954-62). This was a war against French rule in Algeria, which began in
1830 with a quite bloody war of conquest. It involved the colonial settlers as well as Muslim
Algerians. Some estimates place the number of deaths as over a million, but the total remains
extremely controversial.
–The Vietnam War (1945-75). This war began with the French war against the Communists in
the north, the separation of Vietnam into North and South, and a later intensive American phase
(1965-73). Estimates remain highly controversial but range from 1-2 million to more than 4
million.
–The Nigerian Civil War (1967-70). This war is little known, and involved an attempt at
secession and formation of a nation to be called Biafra. Estimates of the deaths range from
under 1 to 3 million.
–The Afghanistan Wars (1978-2022). These wars include the Soviet invasion and occupation,
phases of civil war and the American phase (2002-22). Estimates of the deaths range from 1-2
million to 3 million.
–The Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005). This involved the genocide in Darfur and the
eventual independence of South Sudan. Loss of life is through to range from 1 to 2 million.
–The Second Congo War (1998-2003). Estimates go as high as 5-6 million deaths, other
estimates say really only 1-2 million. Congo has been the scene of misgovernment and violence
since the days of the Belgian Congo, when King Leopold’s private corporation may have taken 5
to 10 million lives—but was not a war as such. The Second Congo war has Uganda, Rwanda
and others intervening, and disease, famine and ethnic cleansing.
